Fold

One of the topics of discussion I've frequented this year and in the last few years has been, "How do we get what we want out of social situations?". Generally speaking, this has come up as it pertains to women but it can also be about meeting high status individuals who may help your journey to success. On the women topic, I, along with most of my friends, have found ourselves frustrated by the current social environment and our inability to meet, attract and retain high quality women. Dating apps seem like a numbers problem, far too many men participating and far too females. The bar scene doesn't cut it. Turns out when you involve alcohol, the outcomes get messy and disproportionately fail. Access has become a valuable commodity. But three problems persist here; one, men and women are far more stingy when it comes to sharing their friends, so much so that the activation energy needed to set up a blind date or first encounter is rarely achieved. Second, as time passes, the barriers to entry become greater as the number of high value women in circles of familiarity are scooped up by high value men with better access. Third, prioritizing career potential, which is ultimately front and center of attraction, has counter intuitive effects on access. It turns out that moving away from friends and family to pursue a career has very real consequences in reducing the field access.

With all that considered, one of the tactics we've employed over the last few years is, at least in theory, to generate larger numbers of interactions so that the possibility of a positive interaction goes up statistically speaking. We've had limited success. Despite being on numerous dating apps, actively engaging, the outcomes generated there have been 0 to minimal. We've said yes to social engagements and invitations, but found that high value women are still elusive. Ultimately, there are more variables to be considered. 

Dan Bilzerian is an extreme example of someone who can have anything he wants, anytime he wants, anywhere he wants it. He claims, the one thing that people can do to get what they want out of social situations is to set up their social situations so that they are not chasing the outcome but rather, they are part of the outcome. In Poker, you fold the majority of hands. You only play the hands where your probability of winning is high, or else you'll lose your money and be out of the game in no time. As you win, you gain "table confidence" in the form of chips, which you can then use to take more risk and win bigger. It's capitalism in its purest form, risk is calculable and winning is scalable, but still, the majority of opportunities you will fold. 

So that's what I've decided to do with social situations. Say no. Create scarcity in the form of your time and attention. Counter to the idea of finding success in large numbers and pure statistics, this approach requires heavy discipline and patience. Luckily you don't have to be idle whilst being patient and disciplined. There's plenty to do. Just like in a game of Poker, watching your opponents, observing tactics, getting better. The same concept can be applied here. 

When done right, it looks like this. You pick one or two opportunities in a year to get wins. Maybe it's a party where people haven't seen you in while. Maybe it's a hinge date that exceeds a certain threshold of tolerability. You win in these cases because you picked them out of 10 to be winners. Two wins in a year may not seem like a lot but the rest of that year was spent getting wealthier, wiser, wittier, bigger, stronger, more disciplined and more sought after. The next year you pick 3 out of 12, more wins. More time invested. And the following year maybe you pick 1 out of 15 but this one was the big one. The one you needed to meet that person who will give you a high paying job at their brother's company. Or the one where you meet the 25 year old girl who fulfills the S Trifecta, who's a cousin of a friend's sister in law. 

The difficulty is folding. Everyone wants to be optimistic, everyone wants to play. Seeing the bigger picture is hard. Sticking to principle is hard. But you have to fold. The cost of folding is much smaller than the cost of playing. Paying the little blind is a small price to pay. It's just the price of admission. Meanwhile your long term potential grows. Your scarcity deepens. Your value rises. 

2021 will be a year where I will fold on many more opportunities. Calls and texts and invitations will be turned down because when I foresee said opportunity I'll imagine chasing an outcome rather than being part of the outcome. I'll pick my battles and win those battles, so that in 2022 and 2023 and 2024 the slope of my winning graph continues to be upward. And all the while I'll watch as the metaphorical stats of my life grow like a player gaining xp. I just have to fold when I've got a 2 of Hearts and a 7 of Spades and play when I've got Pocket Aces.