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Who are you? Who am I? | Week 47

November | Politics | Week 47 | 11/26/2023
2024 Election predictions

Over the last year my predictions for the 2024 election have changed numerous times. Depending on my exposure to various media, my portrayal of the candidates' favorability can and will shift. Additionally, my relative cynicism or optimism on any given day will impact my predictions. All things considered, I do feel relatively confident with my current prediction: Trump vs Kamala vs RFK Jr. Kamala wins.  

On the Republican side, prior to Trump announcing his candidacy, I would have predicted that DeSantis would run and likely win the nomination. His support by folks like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, his support among Hispanics, and his sweeping victory in Florida, told me that he was likely to capture the same adoration nationally. However, once Trump announced his candidacy, it became unclear. Now, as we narrow in on 11 months until the vote, Trump has been indicted and arrested, appeared at numerous sporting events and done interviews with the likes of Tucker Carlson, and I honestly cannot see him not getting the nomination. His unwavering support, his cult-like following, and his likeability, particularly online, is unprecedented. As far as other candidates, I do think that Nikki Haley, Desantis and Vivek will put up some challenges in the primaries and may even win a state or two each but overall, I believe Trump will sweep the field. I do think it's possible that he will choose Vivek or Tucker Carlson as his VP. 

On the Democrat side, I had hopes briefly that RFK Jr. might actually have a shot, but it was clear within a few months and a few podcasts that he was nothing resembling a modern Democrat and he stood no chance within the party lines. There was some speculation that other candidates might jump in if Biden didn't announce his candidacy. Popular options were Newsom, Bloomberg, and even Michelle Obama. 

Here is my detailed prediction about how this election cycle will go. January 1, 2024, the front running candidates will be Trump, Biden, and RFK. After a few of the primaries, the republican candidates outside Trump will drop out of the race. Trump will subsequently name Vivek as his running mate. Biden will officially name Kamala as his running mate. And RFK will pick Tulsi Gabbard. After a few more failed attempts at putting Trump in jail, the left will change tactics to their final strategy. There will be a mysterious reason why Biden has to withdraw, citing health reasons, and Kamala will become the presidential nominee for the Democrats, naming Gavin Newsom as her running mate. 

Going into the final election, it will be Trump/Vivek, RFK/Tulsi, and Kamala/Newsom. RFK/Tulsi will pull far more votes from Trump than from Kamala and Kamala will end up winning the election. 

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